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Forecast accuracy learning reference
| Metric | Formula | Best use | Common caution |
|---|---|---|---|
| ME | Σ(A − F) ÷ n | Signed bias | Errors can cancel |
| MAE | Σ|A − F| ÷ n | Typical error in original units | Treats every magnitude linearly |
| RMSE | √mean((A − F)²) | Penalizing large misses | Sensitive to outliers |
| MAPE | mean(|A − F| ÷ |A|) × 100 | Simple percentage reporting | Undefined at zero actuals |
| WAPE | Σ|A − F| ÷ Σ|A| × 100 | Portfolio volume accuracy | High-volume series dominate |
| MASE | Model MAE ÷ Naive MAE | Cross-series comparison | Depends on benchmark definition |
Glossary
Error: actual minus forecast. Bias: systematic signed error. Horizon: periods ahead. Coverage: outcomes inside intervals.
Worked example
Actual 120 and forecast 110 give error 10, absolute error 10, squared error 100, and absolute percentage error 8.33%.
Metric selection guide
Use MAE for readable units, RMSE for costly large misses, MASE across scales, and interval scores when uncertainty matters.
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