Horse odds comparison
Calculated from current odds when available, otherwise morning-line odds.
| Horse | Morning | Current | Decimal | Implied chance | $2.00 gross | Potential profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 Horse 1 | 3/1 | 5/1 | 6.00 | 16.67% | $12.00 | $10.00 |
| #2 Horse 2 | 7/2 | 6/1 | 7.00 | 14.29% | $14.00 | $12.00 |
| #3 Horse 3 | 5/1 | 8/1 | 9.00 | 11.11% | $18.00 | $16.00 |
| #4 Horse 4 | 6/1 | 10/1 | 11.00 | 9.09% | $22.00 | $20.00 |
| #5 Horse 5 | 8/1 | 12/1 | 13.00 | 7.69% | $26.00 | $24.00 |
| #6 Horse 6 | 10/1 | 15/1 | 16.00 | 6.25% | $32.00 | $30.00 |
| #7 Horse 7 | 12/1 | 20/1 | 21.00 | 4.76% | $42.00 | $40.00 |
| #8 Horse 8 | 15/1 | 30/1 | 31.00 | 3.23% | $62.00 | $60.00 |
| #9 Horse 9 | 20/1 | 3/1 | 4.00 | 25.00% | $8.00 | $6.00 |
| #10 Horse 10 | 30/1 | 7/2 | 4.50 | 22.22% | $9.00 | $7.00 |
| #11 Horse 11 | 3/1 | 5/1 | 6.00 | 16.67% | $12.00 | $10.00 |
| #12 Horse 12 | 7/2 | 6/1 | 7.00 | 14.29% | $14.00 | $12.00 |
| #13 Horse 13 | 5/1 | 8/1 | 9.00 | 11.11% | $18.00 | $16.00 |
| #14 Horse 14 | 6/1 | 10/1 | 11.00 | 9.09% | $22.00 | $20.00 |
| #15 Horse 15 | 8/1 | 12/1 | 13.00 | 7.69% | $26.00 | $24.00 |
| #16 Horse 16 | 10/1 | 15/1 | 16.00 | 6.25% | $32.00 | $30.00 |
| #17 Horse 17 | 12/1 | 20/1 | 21.00 | 4.76% | $42.00 | $40.00 |
| #18 Horse 18 | 15/1 | 30/1 | 31.00 | 3.23% | $62.00 | $60.00 |
| #19 Horse 19 | 20/1 | 3/1 | 4.00 | 25.00% | $8.00 | $6.00 |
| #20 Horse 20 | 30/1 | 7/2 | 4.50 | 22.22% | $9.00 | $7.00 |
Odds, probability, and payout charts
Charts are drawn locally in your browser without external libraries.
Implied probability by horse
Potential profit by horse
How Kentucky Derby odds and wagers work
Fractional, decimal, and American odds
Fractional odds such as 5/1 describe potential profit relative to the stake. A successful $10 wager at 5/1 produces $50 profit and returns the original $10 stake, making the estimated gross payout $60. Decimal odds express the complete return multiplier. The same 5/1 price equals 6.00 decimal. American odds describe profit on a positive $100 price or the stake required to earn $100 on a negative price.
Implied probability
Decimal odds convert to implied probability with one divided by decimal odds. A 6.00 decimal price implies about 16.67 percent before considering market effects. This probability is a break-even threshold, not a prediction. If your carefully reasoned estimate is higher than the implied probability, the selection may appear to be an overlay. If it is lower, the selection may be an underlay.
Pari-mutuel pricing
Kentucky Derby wagering generally uses pari-mutuel pools. Bettors contribute to a shared pool, the operator applies takeout, and winning tickets divide the remaining amount. Displayed odds can therefore move as more money arrives. The calculator’s pool mode uses a simplified estimate and cannot reproduce every jurisdiction’s breakage, coupled entry, refund, dead-heat, or minimum-payout rule.
Win, place, and show
A win ticket succeeds only when the selected horse wins. A place ticket generally succeeds when the horse finishes first or second. A show ticket generally succeeds when the horse finishes in the first three. Place and show payouts depend on separate pools, so this page asks for separate decimal return estimates rather than assuming a fixed discount from win odds.
Across the board
An across-the-board wager is three separate tickets on the same horse: win, place, and show. A $2 across-the-board selection costs $6. If the horse wins, all three components can return. If it finishes second, the place and show components can return. If it finishes third, only the show component can return.
Exacta and quinella
An exacta requires the first two finishers in the correct order. A quinella uses the same two finishers without requiring their order. A straight ticket contains one combination. A box creates all eligible combinations from the chosen horses. With four horses, an exacta box contains 4 × 3, or 12 ordered combinations. A four-horse quinella box contains six unordered pairs.
Trifecta and superfecta
A trifecta requires the first three finishers in exact order, while a superfecta requires the first four. Combination counts grow quickly. Four horses in a trifecta box produce 4 × 3 × 2, or 24 combinations. Five horses in a superfecta box produce 5 × 4 × 3 × 2, or 120 combinations. Multiply combinations by the base wager to determine ticket cost.
Keys, wheels, and part-wheels
A key fixes one horse in a specific role while combining it with other runners. A wheel allows broad coverage around one or more fixed positions. A part-wheel assigns different horse groups to each finishing position. This calculator treats the key horse as fixed in the first position for same-race ordered wagers. Use position fields for more precise part-wheel construction.
Daily Double and Pick wagers
Multi-race wagers require winners in consecutive designated races. Combination cost equals selections in race one multiplied by selections in race two, continuing through every leg. Selecting two horses in each leg of a Pick 4 creates 2 × 2 × 2 × 2, or 16 combinations. Horses may repeat across legs because each leg represents a different race.
Scratches and official rules
Scratch treatment differs by wager and operator. A scratch can trigger a refund, substitute the post-time favorite, or alter combinations. Marking a horse as scratched removes it from comparison charts, but this standalone calculator does not automatically rewrite every ticket. Always check the official rules and your ticket after scratches are announced.
Expected value
Expected value combines the probability-weighted gain and loss. A positive estimate means the assumed probability and payout produce a mathematical surplus over many identical trials. It does not mean a single ticket is likely to win. Small errors in probability estimates can reverse the result, especially for long shots and high-variance exotic wagers.
Fair odds
Fair decimal odds equal one divided by your estimated probability. A 20 percent probability corresponds to 5.00 decimal fair odds. Offered odds above 5.00 may appear favorable under that assumption, while lower odds may not compensate for the estimated risk. Your probability should account for form, pace, distance, surface, post position, track condition, field strength, and uncertainty.
Kelly Criterion
The Kelly formula proposes a bankroll fraction based on edge and payout. Full Kelly can be highly volatile and is extremely sensitive to inaccurate probabilities. Fractional Kelly reduces the suggested amount but does not remove risk. The calculator caps negative Kelly estimates at zero and shows the amount only as an educational comparison.
Bankroll exposure
Ticket cost is the immediate maximum loss for a conventional wager. Compare it with both your race budget and your entire bankroll. Exotic tickets often appear inexpensive per combination but become costly after boxing several horses. The live ticket panel helps reveal this multiplication before submission.
Taxes and net payouts
Tax treatment depends on jurisdiction and individual circumstances. The optional tax input is a simple percentage applied to estimated positive profit. It is not tax advice and does not model thresholds, withholding, itemization, losses, forms, or reporting rules. Consult qualified local guidance when necessary.
Set limits before race day
Choose a fixed entertainment budget before reviewing odds. Avoid increasing stakes to recover previous losses. Do not borrow money, use bill funds, or treat wagering as income. Consider using deposit, time, and loss limits offered by regulated operators. A calculator can organize arithmetic, but it cannot make an uncertain event safe or predictable.
Recognize warning signs
Warning signs can include hiding activity, chasing losses, missing responsibilities, borrowing to wager, or feeling unable to stop. Take a break and use local responsible-gambling resources when betting stops being enjoyable or controlled. Self-exclusion and blocking tools may also be available through licensed operators and financial institutions.
Age and location requirements
Wagering laws and minimum ages vary. Confirm that betting is legal where you are physically located and use appropriately licensed services. This downloadable page does not verify identity, location, eligibility, or regulatory status. It provides calculations only and does not accept bets or connect to a wagering account.
Keep estimates in perspective
Morning-line odds are an early estimate, not a promised price. Current odds can change materially before post time. Pool estimates, handicapping opinions, and expected-value calculations remain uncertain. Official payouts may also reflect breakage, dead heats, coupled entries, refunds, deductions, and other rules not captured by a simplified model.
Formula used
Decimal odds = 1 + (fractional numerator ÷ fractional denominator)
Gross payout = stake × decimal odds
Net profit = net payout − total ticket cost
Implied probability = 1 ÷ decimal odds
Expected value = (estimated probability × net profit) − ((1 − estimated probability) × amount risked)
Exotic ticket cost = number of combinations × base stake
Simplified pool return per unit = (gross pool × (1 − takeout rate)) ÷ amount wagered on selection
Kelly fraction = ((profit odds × probability) − loss probability) ÷ profit odds
How to use this calculator
- Select a straight, across-the-board, exotic, or multi-race wager.
- Enter the stake per ticket or per combination and choose a currency.
- Provide fractional, decimal, American, or morning-line odds.
- For place, show, or across-the-board calculations, enter estimated place and show returns.
- For exotic wagers, choose a structure and enter runners for each position or race.
- Review the live combination count and total ticket cost before calculating.
- Optionally enable the simplified pari-mutuel pool estimator.
- Enter your estimated success probability to compare fair odds and expected value.
- Set bankroll and race-budget limits so warnings can highlight excessive exposure.
- Submit the form, review the assumptions, and compare the estimate with official race-day information.